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MTH 246: Probability


Probability is an interesting and important subject both by in its own right and because it is an essential basis for other subjects. This course is an important prerequisite for students planning to take 346 Mathematical Statistics. Both should be taken by students planning to take the actuarial exams in probability and statistics. This course should also be taken as a prerequisite for some of the Operations Research courses at the university. Note that MTH 212, Calculus III, is a prerequisite for this course.

This course begins with the basics of discrete probability. That is, what is the probability of a certain event occurring out of a finite set of possibilities? For example, what is the probability that the sum of two dice is even? Later in the course we discuss continuous probabilities. For example, what is the probability that we will have at least 1 inch of rain tomorrow? The amount of rain we get could be any nonnegative real number.

We study properties of both kinds of probabilities. We learn how to derive some more complex probabilities out of simple ones. For example, we study conditional probability and Bayes Rule. Conditional probability asks the question, what is the probability that $ x$ will happen given that $ y$ happens?

In order to understand the mathematical structures of probability theory we talk about random variables. For example, if $ x$ is the the number of students who apply to Smith next year, then $ x$ is a random variable. The distribution of a random variable may be described as a function that contains all the relevant information about the probability of a random variable. We study several known distributions, including the Normal or Gaussian, the Binomial, the Poisson, and the Exponential.

For some purposes we do not need all the information contained in the distribution function, and a few descriptive properties of the distribution will serve. Two particularly useful properties are the expected value and the variance of the distribution. The first tells us where the distribution is located on the number line and the second tells us how spread out it is.

Sometimes we can use the distribution of one random variable to find the distribution of another, related variable. We study specific techniques for finding distributions of random variables that are mathematical transformations of other random variables whose distributions are known.


next up previous contents
Next: MTH 247: Introduction to Up: Some Detailed Course Descriptions Previous: MTH 245: Introduction to   Contents
Nicholas Horton 2006-08-27