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The Rate of Transmission

   

Since susceptibles become infected, the compartment diagram above should also have an arrow that goes from S to I and a rate equation for S' to show how S changes as the infection spreads. While R' depends only on I, because recovery involves only waiting for people to leave the infected population, S' will depend on both S and I, because transmission involves contact between susceptible and infected persons.

Here's a way to model the transmission rate. First, consider a single susceptible person on a single day. On average, this person will contact only a small fraction, p, of the infected population. For example, suppose there are 5000 infected children, so I = 5000. We might expect only a couple of them--let's say 2--will be in the same classroom with our ``average'' susceptible. So the fraction of contacts is p = 2/I = 2/5000 = .0004. The 2 contacts themselves can be expressed as tex2html_wrap_inline3362 contacts per day per susceptible.

To find out how many daily contacts the whole susceptible population will have, we can just multiply the average number of contacts per susceptible person by the number of susceptibles: this is tex2html_wrap_inline3364 .

Not all contacts lead to new infections; only a certain fraction q do. The more contagious the disease, the larger q is. Since the number of daily contacts is pSI, we can expect tex2html_wrap_inline3372 new infections per day (i.e., to convert contacts to infections, multiply by q). This becomes aSI if we define a to be the product qp.

Recall, the value of the recovery coefficient b depends only on the illness involved. It is the same for all populations. By contrast, the value of a depends on the general health of a population and the level of social interaction between its members. Thus, when two different populations experience the same illness, the values of a could be different. One strategy for dealing with an epidemic is to alter the value of a. Quarantine  does this, for instance; see the exercises.

Since each new infection decreases the number of susceptibles, we have the rate equation for S:

displaymath3392

The minus sign here tells us that S is decreasing (since S and I are positive). We call a the transmission coefficient. 

Just as people flow from the infected to the recovered compartment when they recover, they flow from the susceptible to the infected when they fall ill. To indicate the second flow let's add another arrow to the compartment diagram.   Because this flow is due to the transmission of the illness, we will label the arrow with the transmission coefficient a. The compartment diagram now reflects all aspects of our model.

picture2373

We haven't talked about the units in which to measure a and b. They must be chosen so that any equation in which a or b appears will balance. Thus, in R' = bI the units on the left are persons/day; since the units for I are persons, the units for b must be 1/(days). The units in S' = -aSI will balance only if a is measured in 1/(person-day).

The reciprocals have more natural interpretations. First of all, 1/b is the number of days a person needs to recover. Next, note that 1/a is measured in person-days (i.e., persons tex2html_wrap_inline3436 days), which are the natural units in which to measure exposure. Here is why. Suppose you contact 3 infected persons for each of 4 days. That gives you the same exposure to the illness that you get from 6 infected persons in 2 days--both give 12 ``person-days'' of exposure. Thus, we can interpret 1/a as the level of exposure of a typical susceptible person.


next up previous
Next: Completing the Model Up: The Spread of Disease Previous: The Rate of Recovery

Jim Callahan
Fri Jun 21 08:27:06 EDT 1996