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What Goes Around Comes Around

Some relatively mild illnesses, like the common cold, return to infect you again and again. For a while, right after you recover from a cold, you are immune. But that doesn't last; after some weeks or months, depending on the illness, you become susceptible again. This means there is now a flow from the recovered population to the susceptible. These exercises ask you to modify the basic S-I-R model to describe an illness where immunity is temporary.

tex2html_wrap4275 R to S. Call this immunity loss,  and use c to denote the coefficient of immunity loss.

tex2html_wrap4276 c = 1/42 per day, and explain your reasoning carefully. A suggestion: adapt the discussion of recovery in the text.

tex2html_wrap4277 S, I, and R.

tex2html_wrap4278 S in the sense that when S is above the threshold, I increases, but when it is below, I decreases. Does this model have the same feature? If so, what is the threshold value?

tex2html_wrap4279 R increase or decrease if

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tex2html_wrap4280 S = 25400 and R = 22500), leaving I unchanged. Will R increase or decrease?

tex2html_wrap4281 S, I, and R that lead to a decreasing R.

tex2html_wrap4282 I and R determine whether R will increase or decrease. Show that

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Explain your argument clearly. A suggestion: consider the rate equation for R'.

tex2html_wrap4283 I compartment are to balance?

tex2html_wrap4284 R compartment are to balance?

tex2html_wrap4285 I nor R is changing, then the model must be at the steady state. Why?

tex2html_wrap4286 S at the steady state?

tex2html_wrap4287 R at the steady state? A suggestion: you know tex2html_wrap_inline4269 . You also have a connection between I and R at the steady state.



Jim Callahan
Fri Jun 21 08:27:06 EDT 1996